Update, 18 October 2026: this preview was published before the tournament. Spain won the World Cup, beating Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the final. England beat France 6–4 in the third-place play-off. The original preview follows unchanged, and a section at the end looks at what it got right and wrong.

As the 2026 World Cup gets under way, the usual heavyweights once again lead the betting — but the expanded format and gruelling North American summer could level the playing field more than at any tournament in memory. Here is a clear-eyed look at the favourites, the genuine dark horses, and the structural factors that could decide where the trophy ends up.

The Favourites

Argentina arrive as defending champions, blending the experience of their 2022 winners with a steady stream of emerging talent — though the open question is how their oldest stars hold up over a longer, hotter tournament. France remain the benchmark for depth: they can lose first-choice players and barely weaken, and they have reached two of the last three finals. Brazil never lack attacking riches and arrive under pressure to end a wait for a sixth star that stretches back to 2002. Spain, European champions and built on a relentless possession game, and England, with one of the deepest attacking pools in the world, both carry the "best squad never to convert it" tag. Germany, traditionally slow starters who peak in knockouts, can never be discounted.

The Dark Horses

Morocco are the obvious one. Their run to the 2022 semi-finals — beating Spain and Portugal along the way — was no fluke, and they have continued to develop a golden generation. The USA, as co-hosts with an athletic, youthful core, have the crowds, the familiarity with the venues and the motivation to go beyond their usual ceiling. Portugal still possess elite individual quality and will want a major trophy for their veteran talisman before he bows out. The Netherlands are perennial deep-runners, and a side like Croatia has shown twice in recent cycles that tournament know-how can outweigh raw talent.

History's Warning to the Favourites

One pattern is worth keeping in mind: no European team has ever won a World Cup staged in the Americas. Every edition held in North, Central or South America has been won by a South American nation. Whether 2026 finally breaks that streak — with European sides better prepared for travel and heat than their predecessors — is one of the tournament's most intriguing sub-plots, and a reason to take South American contenders especially seriously.

The X-Factor: Conditions and Format

Summer heat, humidity, altitude in Mexico City and long travel distances between host cities will test squad depth like never before. With the winners playing up to eight matches and several fixtures in air-conditioned indoor stadiums, the physical management of a squad becomes a tactical weapon in itself. The expanded field also means an extra knockout round, so the eventual champions must navigate more potential banana skins than ever. Teams that rotate intelligently and recover well may hold a decisive edge over those who rely too heavily on a small core.

Key Players to Watch

France's Kylian Mbappé enters his prime as perhaps the tournament's defining talent, but World Cups have a habit of crowning new icons. Watch for the next generation of attackers across Brazil, England and Spain, and for the breakout star from an unfancied nation — almost every recent tournament has produced one. Individual brilliance in a single knockout tie can still bend an entire World Cup, however deep the favourites' squads may be.

Our Read

The smart money still sits with the established powers — Argentina, France and Brazil — but the combination of an extra round, brutal conditions and a host nation with home advantage makes 2026 unusually open. If a surprise package reaches the latter stages, few should be shocked.

Looking Back: What This Preview Got Right and Wrong

The semi-finalists were all from our list of favourites: Spain, Argentina, France and England. Spain beat France 2–0 in their semi-final, and Argentina beat England 2–1. There was no real surprise package in the last four.

We were wrong about the order. We put Spain in the second tier, behind Argentina, France and Brazil. They went on to win the trophy and conceded only one goal in eight matches, according to CBS News' report on the final. Brazil did not reach the semi-finals.

The history section above aged worst. Spain became the first European team to win a World Cup played in the Americas. The streak we called a "historical edge for South American contenders" ended in the final, against a South American side.

The point about squad depth held up. Spain's winner in the final came from Ferran Torres, who started on the bench and came on in the 62nd minute.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2026 World Cup?

Spain, who beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the final on 19 July 2026. It was their second title, after 2010.

Who were the favourites before the tournament?

Defending champions Argentina, along with France, Brazil, Spain, England and Germany.

Has a European team ever won a World Cup in the Americas?

Yes, but only once. Spain did it in 2026. Before that, every World Cup held in the Americas had been won by a South American nation.

Key Takeaways

  • All four semi-finalists (Spain, Argentina, France and England) came from the pre-tournament list of favourites.
  • Spain, ranked here behind Argentina, France and Brazil, won the trophy.
  • Spain's win ended the run of South American champions at World Cups held in the Americas.
  • Squad depth mattered: the winning goal in the final came from a substitute.